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The gravest possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been outlined by scientists, including a blistering 4C rise in temperatures to a 2-metre surge in sea levels. A separate possibility envisions a drop of 6C in temperature following the collapse of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset farming and energy needs.

Credible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These effects, certain ones are connected to climate tipping points, are viewed as low probability but possible. The researchers explained that these scenarios plugged a hole in planning that had rendered the UK not ready for worst-case results.

"The worst-case scenarios we have detailed aren’t predictions, but they are plausible," stated Nigel Arnell who oversaw the analysis. "Britain has been making preparations without the methods to assess catastrophic outcomes. We've now provided planners what they need to plan for environmental results they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Suite of Severe Conditions Projections

A further series of worst-case scenarios details the possible scale of severe conditions between now and the end of the century. These suggest that temperatures could soar in particular seasons by up to 6C above the norm, while precipitation could be 300% of standard measurements.

The chance of the worst-case outcomes happening could not be calculated due to unknown factors about what measures will be enacted to address global warming and how the climate system will behave. This research was likened to defence planning or scenario planning for financial systems.

Key Possibility Highlights

• Four-Degree Warming: Global temperatures soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if international cooperation breaks down or if powerful amplifying effects including the Amazon basin dying release its huge repository of carbon. This would result in extreme and prolonged heat domes and droughts affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and becoming unstable due to climate change. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Farming would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be fundamentally reshaped," explained the lead researcher.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica disintegrate quickly, submerging low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is drastically reduced. This counterintuitive effect occurs because pollution particles from burning coal block sunlight from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

The severe models could be utilized in planning the development of major projects, for example new towns, nuclear power stations and flood defences. Understanding these future hazards could also accelerate the drive to slash fossil fuel emissions.

The study created the worst-case scenarios using a combination of real-world events, computer simulations and established principles. The possibilities omit international cascading effects such as the global food shortages and geopolitical instability.

This work was requested as part of a government’s climate resilience programme. Earlier reports have stated that not enough attention was being paid to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

The government's climate advisors has said that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and evaluate the risks for four degrees. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "inadequate" by some observers.

A national response noted: "The climate emergency is at the heart of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and becoming a low-carbon economy. It is crucial that the UK is resilient for the effects."