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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. After making warnings of "severe consequences" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin continued hindering peace discussions, he ultimately introduced considerable sanctions on Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly created by both nations' officials excluding Ukrainian or European input, he has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Invasion

This initiative would essentially reward the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while putting the country's democracy in peril. Although bold statements that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal effectively weaken that same sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his corporate background, the former president persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, like ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian land will appease the president. However, Russia's military campaign is not only about controlling a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated area in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an attractive model for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that Putin's growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in place the currently divided oblasts of these areas, Trump's proposal would require the nation to abandon all of this eastern territory. Aside from favoring Russia with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically weakened.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified military defenses that are a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, giving Putin a open path to the capital in case he subsequently decide to restart the conflict.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate additional hostilities easier for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their present large number troops to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the initiative sets no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, the proposal states: "All radical ideology and practices must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump places no obligation that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has violated comparable accords in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of seized land in the region to the government – why should we believe Russia this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the initiative threatens a "decisive coordinated military response" in case Russia restart its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, thereby preventing the security presence, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his reduced military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Response

A separate side agreement according to sources would grant the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "major, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. However unlike a capable national defense – Ukraine's primary deterrent against renewed hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of alliance members, such as Trump, to react militarily to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not